So Many Cardinals, So Few Seats?

There were 115 Cardinals in the Conclave which elected Pope Benedict in 2005. There are 252 now. Francis has appointed 80% of the College. Lord have mercy on Thy Church!

From Crisis

By Daniel B. Gallagher, PhD, STD

At 252, the College of Cardinals is at an all-time high, with members hailing from a record 94 countries. Since 1975, only those under the age of eighty are permitted to vote.

As we continue to pray for Pope Francis’ health and well-being, many are again speculating whether he might be considering amendments to the norms for electing a new pope. The last changes were made by his predecessor just days before his historic resignation on February 28, 2013, and weeks before the conclave to elect his successor would assemble. With Normas Nonnullas, Benedict XVI repealed the simple majority allowed by John Paul II after thirteen days of inconclusive balloting. Given the relative brevity of the last couple of conclaves, it seems to have been a reasonable change to make, and it would probably be prudent for Francis to retain it. If Francis decides to revise the norms, any changes are likely to be small, the most significant of which might pertain to the number of cardinals permitted to participate in a conclave.

At 252, the College of Cardinals is at an all-time high, with members hailing from a record 94 countries. Since 1975, only those under the age of eighty are permitted to vote. Paul VI also capped the total number of electors at 120. The current number of those eligible now stands at an unprecedented 137. Assuming all of them will remain alive and will be able to attend the next conclave, the number of electors will eventually shrink back to 120 when Cardinal Juan José Omella of Spain turns eighty on April 21st of next year. 

But what will happen if it doesn’t? Let’s first consider some statistics before turning to that question.

No one has extended the geographical reach of the College as far as Pope Francis. In fact, the current pontiff has appointed a whopping 109 of the current 137 electors. Sweden, Myanmar, Tonga, Cape Verde, and South Sudan have all received a cardinal for the first time. Although Europe retains the highest percentage of electors, it has dropped below 40 percent for the first time, while Asia has nearly 20 percent, Latin America 17 percent, and Africa almost 13 percent. That leaves the United States and Canada with 10 percent of the electors and Oceania with under 3 percent. 

Although these statistics are significant, they do not change the fact that geopolitics play a limited role in electing a new pope. The percentages also do not exactly reflect the distribution of Catholics throughout the world. For example, even though nearly half of the world’s Catholics live in the Americas, the vast region is home to less than 30 percent of the cardinal electors. Francis has done more than his predecessors to fill that gap while simultaneously closing the gap on the European continent where a quarter of the world’s Catholics live and where growth is now minimal at around 0.3 percent. At over 2 percent growth a year, Africa is the fastest growing church and now boasts approximately 20 percent of the Catholic world population. Hence, the continent’s 13 percent representation in the College is well justified and will likely continue to grow.

What these statistics will change is the kind of discussions that will characterize both the general congregations and the conclave itself. The needs of local churches will be brought forth in a way unimaginable a century ago. In 1925, there were only about fifty cardinals, the overwhelming majority of whom were Italian. The internationalization of the College that began in the nineteenth century only began having an effect on outcomes with the election of John Paul II in 1978. But there was no turning back. That does not mean we will never see an Italian pope again, but it does mean the momentum can change with a single ballot, making it much more difficult to predict who will emerge on the balcony when it’s all over. 

So, what will happen if there are more than 120 electors living when the next conclave is convened? One of two things. 

The first scenario is that Francis will follow the more common canonical interpretation of John Paul II’s Apostolic Constitution on the Vacancy of the Apostolic See and the Election of the Roman Pontiff (Universi Dominici Gregis, 1996) and do nothing. That is because from the moment John Paul created new cardinals in a 1998 consistory that increased the number of electors to 122, he dispensed himself from the norm he himself reaffirmed of limiting the number of electors to 120. It just so happened that by the time the 2005 conclave commenced, the number was down to 117 (though two were unable to attend). That number subsequently fluctuated above 120, reaching a high of 125 under Pope Benedict XVI, all of whom would presumably have participated in a conclave had it not been for the fact that, once again, the number dwindled to 117 in 2013 (again, two were unable to attend). 

The second scenario is that, whenever he feels the time is right, Francis will revise the norms and increase the number permitted to participate in a conclave. The advantage, of course, is that such a change might allow for wider participation, greater diversity, and richer discussion. The disadvantage is that it may make voting a bit more cumbersome and contentious. If His Holiness is considering raising the number, he should probably do so with caution as it would be hard to go back. Of course, if the number had to be restricted again sometime in the future, a successor might consider reducing the age limit of electors to seventy-five, thus conveniently making it match the episcopal retirement age that has been in place since 1966. 

The point is that there have been consistent changes to the election process, including by each of the previous six popes (excluding John Paul I); Paul VI and Benedict XVI even chimed in twice. The number of 120 is not divinely dictated but simply a way of reflecting “present historical circumstances” so that “the universality of the Church is sufficiently expressed by the College” with “Cardinals coming from all parts of the world and from very different cultures” (Universi Dominici Gregis).

You may remember the outrageous rumors circulating a year ago about how Pope Francis was going to change the rules of the conclave. If they were based on any reality, it would be the natural fact that, like his predecessors, he was thinking ahead to ensure the election of his successor would proceed as smoothly as possible and leave ample room for the Holy Spirit. This Argentinian pope, of course, is full of surprises, so we cannot rule out some significant modifications to the current norms. On the other hand, if, God willing, he recovers and remains in office long enough to see the number of cardinal electors dwindle closer to 120, he may well not touch the norms at all.