It's six of one and a half dozen of another. The Tories, the so-called 'Conservatives, are just as woke and 'progressive' as the Labourites.
From The European Conservative
By Michaele Curzon
Hello, and welcome to The European Conservative’s UK election live coverage.
The BBC, ITV, and Sky exit poll has Labour set to win a general election landslide, with a parliamentary majority of 170.
If the forecast is correct, Sir Keir Starmer will become prime minister with 410 Labour MPs.
The Conservatives are predicted to come out of the election with 131 MPs, down 241 from their current stock but still more than has been suggested during the worst moments of the past six weeks. Importantly, they are likely to win many more seats than the Liberal Democrats (forecasted to nab 61), meaning the Tories are set to form the official Opposition.
Reform is set to win 13 seats—far more than many pollsters have been suggesting.
It will be interesting now first to see if this forecast is correct, but also to establish how many seats Reform has come second in, and in how many areas they have helped Labour add to their tally.
Speaking after the announcement, former BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg said that while the exit poll must be taken with a “high level of scepticism,” it has a “very good track record.”
Keep following this blog for live updates and reactions.
10:42 p.m. (BST)—If you can bear to look…
Here’s a handy visual of the general election exit poll:
10:00 p.m. (BST)—What would be “good” and what would be “disastrous”for Reform?
Pollster Matthew Goodwin, who has voted Reform, believes it would be “good” if Nigel Farage’s party secured “one or two seats” at the election, with five-to-seven million votes spread across the country.
He said that this—as well as Reform coming second in more than 100 Tory and Labour seats—would serve as a “solid foundation” for the next general election, which will likely take place in 2029.
Goodwin added that a “disastrous outcome” would be Reform winning zero seats.
9:36 p.m. (BST)—Less than half an hour until exit poll
The general election ‘exit poll’ should be released just after 10:00 p.m. (BST).
This is a big moment on election night and should fairly accurately predict the formation of the next parliament.
As explained below, the exit poll is based on interviews with a sample of voters in 133 “carefully selected” seats. For those interested in the nitty-gritty of British electoral politics, The New York Times has a good write up here on what makes the exit poll so trusted.
We will be bringing you the results here as they are unveiled.
9:15 (BST)—Douglas Murray: “The Tories have only themselves to blame”
Echoing former home secretary Suella Braverman’s recent condemnation of Tories who blame Reform for their woes, Douglas Murray has argued today that “if the British Right is to cohere … [it will] have to have some people who are actually right-wing—in economics, social policy, immigration policy and much more.”
Writing in The Spectator, Murray denounced calls for the Conservative Party to kowtow to ‘centrists,’ and rejected the view that the party is suffering because it has moved too far to the Right.
Reform have undoubtedly helped the Conservative Party to a greater defeat than they might otherwise have gone down to. But after 14 years, many people on the Right have had enough of the Conservatives insisting they and they alone can be trusted. Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and Sunak one after the other destroyed the Conservative Party’s ability to be seen as fiscally capable or anything but the party of open borders. The ‘You have to vote for us’ line no longer holds. That is the consequence of the Conservative Party’s failure. No one else’s.
Worth reading in full.
8:56 p.m. (BST)—Conservatives could be entering “elimination territory”
Phillip Blond, a leading figure in the “Red Tory” (economically left-leaning and culturally traditional) political movement, has written that because the Tories have spent the past 14 years being so “unconservative,” the party might have entered “elimination territory.”
He added in a post on Twitter that if this is the case, and if a sizable number of disgruntled Tories have switched to Nigel Farage’s Reform, this could be “the most important night we’ve had in post-war British politics—a final realignment of the right and the utter eclipse of the Conservative Party.”
7:32 p.m. (BST)—Voter turnout looking stronger than expected
It has been suggested that poll after poll forecasting a massive Labour majority in Parliament after the election could have left many thinking “what’s the point?”—thus stunting voter turnout.
But Peter Stanyon, chief executive of the Association of Electoral Administrators, is quoted in The Times claiming that polling stations are said to have been “busy” and that “there’s certainly not been a massive drop-off or far more people voting. It’s hard to know for sure but we seem to be in about the same sort of region we were last time.”
Presuming that this is correct, journalist Patrick O’Flynn suggested that “this could mean any of three things: a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out, b) enthusiasm for Labour to get the Tories out, [or] c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.” Reform deputy leader Ben Habib agreed that the news “bodes well” for his party.
We don’t have to wait long to find out.
6:35 p.m. (BST)—Departing Gove “emblematic” of what’s gone wrong
Liberal ‘Conservative’ Michael Gove’s long and significant stint in frontline politics is coming to an end.
Photographers earlier today spotted a removal van outside his government-owned residence in London, despite previous reports that he would vacate the £25 million (€29.5 million) mansion tomorrow, on July 5th.
Gove’s planned departure from politics (he announced he was standing down as MP in May) is fairly symbolic, given that he has held senior roles in most of the Tory governments since 2010—including as ‘Levelling Up’ secretary, environment secretary and, perhaps most famously, education secretary.
Bow Group think tank chairman Ben Harris-Quinney told The European Conservative that “many will see Michael Gove packing his bags as one of the longest serving ministers as emblematic.”
Gove is emblematic in the sense that he is a well known fan of Tony Blair. He came into office when people thought they had just voted for an end to Blair, not realising it was just another changing of the guard.
Only when this is recognised can real change occur.
5:34 p.m. (BST)—Parties make their final pitches before polls close
Most of those who are voting today will have already done so. But the parties are still pumping out content on social media for the stragglers who they are hoping have yet to make up their minds.
Reform, said its leader Nigel Farage, “will ban the poisonous trans ideology in our schools” and will “raise the minimum income tax threshold to £20,000, lifting six million people out of tax”—two policies that separate it from both the Conservatives and Labour. Some polling is now suggesting that the party could win as many as 15 seats. We’ll have to wait at least 12 hours to see if this is true.
The Tories have spent their day hammering home the dangers of a Labour “supermajority” in Parliament, with leader Rishi Sunak suggesting that the only way to stop this is to “vote Conservative.” A video interview by TRIGGERnometry with conservative journalist Peter Hitchens (no usual bedfellow of the Tories), in which he urges patriots to vote against Labour, has also now been viewed more than 200,000 times on Twitter alone.
Labour, made confident(ish) by the polls, has not had to do quite as much work today, although leader Sir Keir Starmer has again trotted out the line that he has “changed the Labour Party” since the days of Jeremy Corbyn, and expressed his desire to “change the country,” too.
The economically left, culturally traditional Social Democratic Party republished its 2024 election broadcast today, which can also be watched here.
4:38 p.m. (BST)—Seats to watch
Political blog Guido Fawkes has put together a list of Conservative cabinet ministers’ seats that are on a “knife-edge” and could very possibly flip either to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Definitely worth a read, alongside our own rundown of tonight’s key election timings.
3:01 p.m. (BST)—Key election timings
We’ll be posting updates on the election through the day right here. But the main action will start at 10:00 p.m., after polling stations—which have been open since 7:00 a.m.—close. Here is a rundown of the (likely) key timings (BST), provided for my benefit as much as for yours!
- 10:00 p.m.: The BBC will unveil its famous mass ‘exit poll’ of voters leaving polling stations (more than 17,000 of them from 133 “carefully selected” seats, according to The Times), predicting the number of seats for each party in the next parliament.
- 11:00 p.m.-midnight: Sunderland South is hoping to be the first seat to declare at around this time.
- Midnight-1:00 a.m.: This is when the first upsets could be inflicted on the Conservatives (or not, as it may turn out), with the constituencies of Basildon and Billericay—where Tory chairman Richard Holden is hoping to defend a majority of 20,000—and Swindon South—which the Tories currently hold with a less impressive majority of 6,600—set to declare in this hour. Other seats are also expected to shift from the Conservatives to Labour at this time.
- 1:00 a.m.-2:00 a.m.: Seats in Scotland should begin to declare, offering an early indication of Labour’s performance against the Scottish National Party north of the border.
- 2:00 a.m.-3:00 a.m.: Around 60 seats should declare in this hour, including in Rochdale, where Workers Party of Britain leader George Galloway is hoping to hold onto the seat he won from Labour just four months ago.
- 3:00 a.m.-4:00 a.m.: The Times describes this as “decapitation hour when a series of senior Tories [like Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan and Alex Chalk] find out if they’ve won or lost their seats.” The papers also say that Reform could win its first seat of the night (in Great Yarmouth) at around this time. Jeremy Corbyn’s Islington North constituency should declare, too.
- 4:00 a.m.-5:00 a.m.: This hour will be interesting. We’ll find out whether Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been able to hold onto his seat, and whether Nigel Farage has done enough to make it into Parliament, too. Tory-to-Reform defector Lee Anderson’s Ashfield seat should also declare.
- 5:00 a.m.-6:00 a.m.: Former prime minister Liz Truss’ South West Norfolk seat will declare.
- 6:00 a.m.-7:00 a.m.: The remaining undeclared seats should unveil their results at around this time.
Most Britons will be waking up to the results after this. Sad politicos like me will either just be going to bed, or holding out just a little bit later to watch the possible transition of power.
2:03 p.m. (BST)—Election commentary from The European Conservative
For some longer reads on today’s election, you can read Frank Haviland on whether Britain will “finally shake off the shackles of the two-party system, put the Tory party to bed and submit to the loving embrace of Reform UK” here, and—if you’ll indulge me—my own article on the various choices faced by genuine British conservatives at this election here.
1:19 p.m. (BST)—“Strong end” for Reform in polls, but very few seats likely to be won
For those who still believe the polls, the final YouGov MRP results yesterday forecasted an “historic election victory” for Labour. It said the party could win 431 out of the 650 seats up for grabs (an increase of 229 from the 2019 election) and that the Tories could win 263 fewer seats than last time, leaving them on 102.
Politics professor Matthew Goodwin also last night highlighted that Reform’s average vote share in the final polls was 17.3%, up from 11% at the start of the election campaign and from 15% last week. Goodwin added that “most polls suggest a strong end to the campaign for Farage & Co.,” regardless of the relentless smear campaigns against the insurgent party.
But the YouGov figures still only show Reform picking up three seats, largely due to the wide distribution of the party’s support, which will struggle to cut through under Britain’s large-party-favouring electoral system.
In many areas, the figures are so close that proper results are anyone’s guess until the declarations come out. More on the timings of all this soon.
12:35 p.m. (BST)—What are the other papers saying?
Most of the newspaper endorsements have been predictable. The Guardian, like The Sun, has backed Labour, leading with Sir Keir Starmer’s hailing of a “new age of hope.” So too has the Daily Mirror, which argues that “Britain can be better than this” and prints a large image of the Labour leader mimicking the famous Barack Obama “Hope” poster.
The Times has not endorsed any party (although its sister paper, The Sunday Times, has also backed Labour). Instead, it has suggested rather tentatively that “democracy requires change,” but “there are … warning signs” about what a Labour government would bring.
The paper also repeats the misconception that Labour has “no visionary prospectus for the coming decade,” despite concerns surrounding its plans for a radical constitutional shake-up and Starmer’s own expressed desire to impose “fundamental change which will see a country transformed.”
The Daily Telegraph endorsed the Tories early on in the election campaign and today splashes with the warning that under Labour, “homeowners face [a] council tax raid.” Allister Heath, the editor of its sister Sunday paper, writes that “the UK is about to enter a nightmare much darker than anyone yet realises,” while the daily team’s editorial suggests—after polling highlighted that just 130,000 voters could be the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament—that “only a vote for the Conservatives can avoid this fate.”
The Daily Express equally predictably backs the Conservatives, conceding that “your frustration that not enough has been done to protect traditional Tory values is understandable” but adding that “the price [of helping Labour win more seats] might be very high.”
Only the Daily Mail addresses Reform UK directly on its front page, suggesting that if you “vote Farage,” you “get them…”—Labour—because “staying at home or supporting Reform UK in protest at past Tory failings would help sweep Sir Keir into Number 10.”
Neither Reform nor the Liberal Democrats have received a national newspaper endorsement. But Farage did this morning use the layout of the Mail’s front page to his advantage:
In Scotland, The Daily Record has endorsed Labour after not backing any party an election since 2010, when it also told Scots to vote Labour.
The European Conservative yesterday published this piece by myself on the various choices that genuine British conservatives have at this election.
11:33 a.m. (BST)—The Sun backs Labour
Rupert Murdoch’s Sun newspaper has backed Labour for the first election since 2005. Hoping to uphold its record of backing winners in elections, the self-titled “People’s Paper”—and, indeed, one of the country’s most-circulated papers—leads today with the claim that it’s “time for a new manager.”
The Sun’s editorial says that while Prime Minister Rishi Sunak “has many policies which we support,” his Conservative Party is, after 14 years in office, “exhausted” and needs “a period in Opposition to unite around a common set of principles.”
It dismisses Nigel Farage’s Reform—supported, according to one Sun poll, by the vast majority of its own readership—as “a one-man band which at best can win only a handful of MPs,” and the Liberal Democrats as “a joke.”
“Which means,” the paper concludes, “that it is time for Labour.”
Sun editors appear to swallow the notion that Sir Keir Starmer’s team will “govern as moderates,” despite what those who are interested know about Starmer’s own radical Left ideology and his plans for significant and irreversible constitutional change.
They also say that Starmer has no “clear plan” for controlling legal or illegal migration, and that “under Labour taxes are going up.”
But that’s ok, because “we will hold Labour to account, without fear or favour.”
The Sun believes its endorsements have swung elections in the past, but it is debatable whether they still make a significant difference.
Starmer is, of course, “delighted” to receive The Sun’s backing. But Kelvin MacKenzie, who edited the paper from 1981 to 1994, fumed online that while “it’s okay for Rupert to give the nod to Socialism from his 350,000 acre ranch in Montana, he forgets Sun readers have to live here.”
9:30 a.m. (BST)—Welcome to The European Conservative‘s live blog of the UK elections!
Six weeks after Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a snap July 4th general election, polling stations opened across the country today at 7:00 a.m. (BST). Voters in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will elect 650 Members of Parliament, from which a new government will be formed.
The polls will close at 10:00 p.m., at around which time the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) will release its famous mass ‘exit poll’ of voters leaving polling stations. We will be reporting on this later.
Around two-thirds of the results are expected to be declared between 3:00 and 5:00 a.m. on Friday morning. The Sunderland South constituency should be first to declare, with the seat holding the record for the fastest declaration time of 10:43 p.m., set in 2001.
Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer are likely to speak at around 4 a.m., when their own seats are called. All eyes will also be on Reform UK’s target seats, with the party expected to secure millions of votes but a disproportionately low number of MPs due to their distribution (and thanks to the first-past-the-post electoral system). Its leader, Nigel Farage’s target seat should be declared at around 4 a.m. Attention will also be paid to Liberal Democrat gains, given the possibility that the leftist party’s MPs could outnumber the Tories and become the ‘official opposition.’
Before voting closes, we will be publishing a number of updates here, including on what today’s newspapers are saying about the election. The real fun, however, starts after 10:00 p.m.
If the polls are to be believed, a number of electoral records could be beaten, including the biggest majority for a single party (Labour) since 1832 and the fewest Conservative Party seats since 1906.
All this should make the election an interesting—if dispiriting—watch. Stay tuned.
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