Musings of an Old Curmudgeon: French Elections: France Abandoned to the Rampage of the Far Left

07 July 2024

French Elections: France Abandoned to the Rampage of the Far Left

And, as I assumed, the election went to the Left. It always does because, regardless of their differences, they unite to prevent a sane government.

From The European Conservative

By Hélène De Lauzun, PhD

The European Conservative's live blog covering the second round of the elections to the French National Assembly.

The left-wing New Popular Front coalition leads with 172 to 192 seats in the first estimates of seats in the National Assembly; surprisingly followed by President Macron’s governmental camp with 150 to 170 seats; before the big winner of the first round, Rassemblement National and its allies, obtaining 132 to 152 seats.

9:27 p.m. (CEST)—Watch experts weigh in on France 24 TV

The European Conservative‘s Hélène de Lauzun will be part of a panel to appear on France 24 TV’s live broadcast shortly with comments on the election results.

9:20 p.m. (CEST)—Marine Le Pen: “Our victory is only delayed.”

Head of Rassemblement National parliamentary group at the National Assembly Marine Le Pen commented on results:

I’ve had too much experience to be disappointed with a result where we double our number of MPs.
Our party remains the No. 1 party in terms of number of MPs
The tide is rising and rising. Our victory is only delayed.

8:58 p.m. (CEST)—Former PM Edouard Philippe: Nobody Gets A majority

Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe takes the floor and points out that no bloc is capable of governing with a coherent majority.

8:56 p.m. (CEST)—Will the members of the leftist coalition be able to work together?

There are serious divisions within the left-wing coalition. Socialist Raphaël Glucksmann says he wants a government “without Robespierre, without Jupiter”, in other words, without Mélenchon’s excesses, and without Macron. It remains to be seen whether this will be possible.

8:40 p.m. (CEST)—Bardella confirms: RN to join ‘Patriots for Europe’ in Brussels

Bardella confirms the RN will join Viktor Orbáns conservative patriotic ‘Patriots for Europe’ group in the European Parliament. Details will be announced after the groups formation meeting on Monday, July 8th.

8:33 p.m. (CEST)—Bardella condemns “alliance of dishonour”

RN president Bardella speaking: he underlines the mobilisation of patriots, and denounces the defamation, intimidation, and contempt that prevailed during the two rounds against the RN. He condemned the alliance of dishonour between the centre and the Left.

Bardella says the policies that will be implemented over the coming months will not address any of the current political concerns of the French people.

8:21 p.m. (CEST)—”France will be ungovernable”

RN Vice-president Louis Aliot speaking: The French preferred chaos in the National Assembly to trusting the party that came out on top in the 1st round. The ideas of the Popular Front are ultra-minority, and France will be ungovernable.

8:14 p.m. (CEST)—Extreme-Left pushes for heading new government

Jean-Luc Mélenchon speaking: he calls for a Popular Front government, with the full application of its extreme left-wing programme. He declares that he does not need votes from MPs immediately and wants to govern by decree from the summer onwards.

8:04 p.m. (CEST)—The Left wins the elections, Republican Front still effective

First estimates of seats in the National Assembly :

The left-wing New Popular Front coalition leads with 172 to 192 seats
The government party finishes with 150 to 170 seats
The Rassemblement National and its allies obtained 132 to 152 seats.

The Republican Front worked, and the barrage against the RN once again proved effective.

The RN obtained more MPs than in the previous legislature, but the big surprise is the resistance of the presidential camp, which came 2nd.

7:51 p.m. (CEST)—RN gets its 2 first deputies overseas

In Mayotte and La Réunion, the Rassemblement National won the first two overseas MPs in the party’s history.

7:21 p.m. (CEST)—Results from some overseas territories

The results for the French overseas territories (Guyana, Martinique, Guadeloupe, New Caledonia) are already in: the Left triumphed, as did the independentists, to the detriment of the RN.

7:05 p.m. (CEST)—Vote counting has begun

Counting began at most polling stations, which closed at 7 p.m.

Important: French law strictly prohibits the disclosure of any results before 8 p.m. All the rumours that are circulating therefore on the web have no validity!

6:35 p.m. (CEST)—Anticipated chaos

According to the Journal du Dimanche, Gabriel Attal’s government is preparing to stay in office for several weeks to deal with current affairs: a sign of the troubled times ahead and the anticipated difficulties in forming a new government.

5:37 p.m. (CEST)—Paris under siege

French police anticipate rioting by the far left and are applying extra protection to the headquarters of the RN and Renaissance parties (Macron), as well as the National Assembly and the Elysée Palace.

Bans on demonstrations issued in Paris by the ministry of interior.

5:24 p.m. (CEST)—High turnout reported at 5 p.m.

5:00 p.m. (CEST)—French elections live blog

This Sunday, July 7th, sees the 2nd round of the French parliamentary elections, to elect the 577 deputies who make up the French National Assembly.

The vote comes after President Emmanuel Macron’s surprise announcement on June 9th that the Assembly would be dissolved, following the European elections, which were marked by a major defeat for his party.

The European elections and the 1st round of the legislative elections saw a spectacular rise in the score of Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (National Rally, or RN), which twice broke the 30% barrier.

What is at stake in today’s vote is which majority will emerge for France, for which government in the coming months.

There are three opposing blocs:

In the centre, the remnants of Emmanuel Macron’s party, under the label “Ensemble” (Together);
On the Left, a coalition gathering all former parties of the previous leftist coalition, with an assertive far-left stance, the Nouveau Front Populaire (New Popular Front, or NFP);
On the Right, the RN and its allies, mainly coming from a part of the centre-right movement Les Républicains (The Republicans, or LR) and from former members of Reconquête, Éric Zemmour’s party, who left with Marion Maréchal to support a global alliance of the Rights.

In a constituency, 12.5% of the votes in the first round are needed for a candidate to go to the 2nd round. Therefore, the 1st round led to more than 300 triangle elections or triangulaires, with the qualification of three candidates, from the Left, the centre and the Right.

The Left and the centre, having brandished an alleged threat of a fascist government for France in case of a RN victory, negotiated alliances in many constituencies to gather their forces and beat the RN—agreeing on having one of their candidates withdraw to have a better chance at beating the RN candidate—in a reenactment of the so-called ‘Republican front’ set up for decades now in France to prevent all kind of electoral success for the national Right. In the end, only 89 triangle elections remain.

Some figures to remember:

577 constituencies
76 MPs already elected from the 1st round, 501 to be elected on July 7th
410 duals, 89 triangle elections (‘triangulaires’) and 2 quadrangulaires.
turnout up on the 1st round was the highest recorded since 1981
289 deputies are required for absolute majority. For the moment, according to the polls, no political force should be able to reach that mark, opening the way to a minority government, with an Assembly split between three opposing blocs.
Most office close at 7 pm. First results to be known at 8 p.m. Offices in big cities close at 8 p.m., so final global results to be known by 10 p.m. or so.

Stay with us for updates as results start rolling in!

Musings of an Old Curmudgeon