Cardinals Entering Conclave: Last Echoes from Rome

Dr Lauzun, a secular observer, predicts a short conclave, with the new Pope elected by the week's end. Pray for a holy and truly Catholic Pope.

From The European Conservative

By Hélène de Lauzun, PhD

The name of the future pope should in all likelihood be known before the end of the week.

On the morning of May 7th, the cardinals enjoyed their last moments of ‘freedom’ with a final Mass at 10 a.m. in St. Peter’s Basilica before entering the conclave to elect a successor to Pope Francis. 

A final prayer will bring them together at 4:30 p.m. in the Pauline Chapel, before they proceed in silent procession to the Sistine Chapel for the official start of the conclave at 5 p.m. From that moment on, all communication networks linking the Vatican to the rest of the world will be cut off to ensure the total and absolute independence of their decision-making. 

There will be 133 of them—out of a college of 135 cardinals; two having declined to travel for health reasons—to decide on the future pope, who will take the helm of a population of nearly 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide. The conclave ceremony, which has been codified to the extreme for centuries, demonstrates its importance, given the immense stakes involved in such an election.

What is the expected timetable? The first round of voting will take place in the early evening, probably around 7 p.m. The name of the pope will obviously not be known after this first vote, which generally serves to clear the field and identify the candidates likely to garner the most votes in the subsequent rounds. From May 8th onwards, four ballots will be held each day: two in the morning and two in the evening. 

Recent history shows that the decision to elect a pope is made relatively quickly, within 24 to 48 hours at most. The longest election in recent decades was that of Pius XI, with fourteen rounds of voting. The other popes of the 20th century were elected after six to eight rounds of voting. The new pontiff should therefore, in all likelihood, be known before the end of the week. 

A decisive phase has taken place in recent days during the general congregations, which allowed the cardinals to speak one after the other—all were required to speak at least once—on the state of the Church and what they believe should be the priorities of the next pontificate. The cardinals’ statements revealed to the public what every observer of Vatican life already knows: the dividing lines are numerous and complex, and the election of the pope is not limited to a clash between conservatives and progressives. 

Every media outlet is playing the prediction game. Some favourites are others’ repellents. The conservative camp is enthusiastic about Cardinal Robert Sarah, but his age—he will be 80 in a few months—is a serious handicap that must be considered, regardless of the sympathy he may inspire. Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő is also seen as a potential conservative papabile. But will the cardinals choose a compatriot of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán? The left-wing press does not shy away from insinuating links between the two men. Prelates are supposed to be above gossip, but they remain men who can be influenced.

After a turbulent pontificate such as that of Pope Francis, it is more than likely that the cardinals will not choose a divisive pastor, in one sense or another, but a man perceived as capable of healing wounds and restoring some unity to a fragmented Catholic community.

Although more than 80% of the cardinal electors were appointed by Francis, they retain their independence of thought. Cardinal Benjamino Stella, prefect of the Congregation for the Clergy and former nuncio to Latin America, who appears to be in line with the late pope, has spoken out strongly against Pope Francis’ attitude, saying he has overstepped centuries of tradition and attempted to impose his personal views on the governance of the Church. Like him, others have no desire to continue the Argentine pope’s experiment in authoritarianism. 

Conversely, Cardinal Christophe Pierre, apostolic nuncio to the United States, distinguished himself with a fiery speech in defence of the late pope, demanding that his legacy be respected. One wonders why, in this case, Pope Francis should be given preferential treatment, and why the legacy of John Paul II or Benedict XVI should not also be fully respected. 

Among the consensus figures, the name of Parolin, Vatican Secretary of State, a seasoned Italian diplomat, capable of mending relations between the Pope and the Curia, which have been severely damaged by Pope Francis, recurs frequently. But he is also the man behind the disastrous agreement with communist China and was involved in the real estate scandal that led to the downfall of Cardinal Becciu, who was sentenced to five years in prison for the fraudulent acquisition of a luxury building in central London.

The Italian Cardinal Patriarch of Jerusalem, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, is coming to the fore as a man of faith and balance, a skilled diplomat who has distinguished himself through his courage and charity in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, when he offered himself as a hostage to secure the release of children held by Hamas. 

The possibility of French Cardinal and Archbishop of Marseille Jean-Marie Aveline is also appealing to many observers of the papal scene. However, French President Emmanuel Macron had the poor taste to invite him to the Villa Bonaparte, the French embassy to the Holy See, during his visit to Rome for the funeral of Pope Francis. It is not certain that the cardinals will want to choose a prelate so closely associated with a troublesome head of state who does not know his place and imagines himself to be a popemaker. 

Progressives like to put forward the Filipino Cardinal Luis Tagle, Archbishop of Manila, described as the ‘Asian Francis’ because he espouses the late pope’s discourse on welcoming migrants and closeness to the most disadvantaged. But conservatives oppose him with ‘their’ Asian candidate, Burmese Cardinal Charles Maung Bo, Archbishop of Rangoon, who has the distinction of having demonstrated a special relationship of trust with both Benedict XVI and Francis. 

At the end of this overview, no favourite is assured of success—if the word has any meaning for one of the heaviest burdens imaginable, one that cannot be desired but only accepted with fear and humility. As Edward Pentin, who initiated the Cardinalium Collegii Recensio project to analyse the positions of eligible cardinals on doctrine and pastoral care, points out, Cardinal José Luis Bergoglio was not put forward by any ‘prominent’ Vaticanist in 2013. And yet.