Le Pen Vows To Fight Back as Court Ruling Shakes French Politics

Four years in prison for the frontrunner in the race! France seems to be taking lessons from Nazi Germany and Stalin's Soviet Union, jailing political opponents. 

From The European Conservative

By Hélène de Lauzun, PhD

The verdict has sparked fierce debate over judicial power—and thrust her potential successor into the spotlight.

Marine Le Pen being sentenced to four years in prison (with two years suspended) and her five-year ban from running for office—equaling her disqualification from the next presidential election—has had the effect of a political earthquake in France. 

The leader of the Rassemblement National parliamentary group reacted to the guilty verdict on French national television last night. She did not mince her words in condemning the judges’ decision, which she described as a “violation of the rule of law” and a “denial of democracy.” 

“I am a fighter. I am not going to let myself be eliminated like this, and I will pursue all possible avenues of appeal,” she said, outlining her roadmap for the coming weeks. During the interview, she also reminded of a fact of paramount importance: “What would be the legitimacy of an elected president if I were acquitted on appeal, even though I would not have been able to stand in the presidential election in the meantime?” 

This situation is reminiscent of that experienced by the right-wing candidate François Fillon in 2017, discredited by a legal case that was unveiled at just the right time and judged with record speed, enabling Emmanuel Macron to secure a victory that was far from certain.

The fact that she was found guilty on the morning of Monday, March 31st, did not really come as a surprise: it was unlikely that the magistrates would show any leniency in a case that was much more political than legal. This was also reflected in the harshness of the sentence: barring a miracle, she will not be able to stand in the 2027 presidential election as she had intended.

The legal battle is only just beginning and promises to be very intense. In fact, there are legal remedies, even if the chances of success are slim. Marine Le Pen intends to launch the appeal procedure immediately. But the legal deadlines are difficult to meet, and even if she were to win in the end, she would have very little time left to campaign.

Another avenue that will be explored is to refer the matter to the Constitutional Council via what is known as a Priority Question of Constitutionality. A similar case, concerning the provisional enforcement of a sentence handed down against a local elected representative, was examined by the Constitutional Council on March 28th, three days before the verdict of the Le Pen trial. The provisional enforcement can be called into question if it is considered that there is a clear infringement of the elector’s freedom by depriving him of a candidate that he has the right to expect in the race. 

The situation clearly applies to the case of Marine Le Pen. But it remains to be seen whether the Constitutional Council will be inclined to agree with her, given that over the years it has become a political instrument at the service of the leaders and not a neutral arbiter guaranteeing the proper functioning of the institutions.

On the Right, lawyers support Marine Le Pen’s argument of a “violation of the rule of law.” In their view, the judges’ decision prevents an effective appeal, and justifies the provisional enforcement in a disproportionate manner. On top of that, the ruling applies the spirit of a law that was passed after the events of which the RN is accused, in defiance of the principle of non-retroactivity of laws that prevails in France.

But it is not only those who sympathise with Le Pen that are not thrilled by the outcome of the trial: an obvious uneasiness dominates the country. Even Prime Minister François Bayrou expressed his reservations about provisional enforcement in matters of ineligibility at a breakfast meeting with his teams on Tuesday, April 1st. “France is the only country to allow this,” he lamented. On the Left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon also challenged the verdict, believing that it was up to the voters to decide, not the courts—and with good reason: his party could also be involved in a similar case in the coming months.

Le Pen’s number two, and the president of the RN, Jordan Bardella, has been in the spotlight since the verdict was announced. At 29 years of age, he would be, if things are confirmed, a particularly young candidate to aspire to the highest office. But he has more than one trick up his sleeve. According to some polling institutes, he is already more popular than Marine Le Pen among large sections of the electorate. And if he were to stand today, he is already more than ten points ahead of his competitors from other parties. The fact remains that the race for the presidency is still a long way off–two years full of pitfalls. It is a long-distance race for which it is not certain he has the political maturity.