French Elections: After RN Victory, a Week of Danger?

I expect violence in the streets on the part of the hard-left and a rigged second-round election on Sunday the 7th to keep the RN from power.

From The European Conservative

By Hélène De Lauzun

The RN's rise is spectacular, but it would be naïve to underestimate the capacity of the political system, dominated by the Left, to defend itself in order to survive.

The polls were right: amplifying the momentum seen on the evening of the European elections, the Rassemblement National (RN) and its allies came out on top in the first round of the French parliamentary elections. In the run-up to the second round, the week ahead will see some fierce battles, which will severely test the “republican front” against the inexorable rise of the national Right in France.

The official figures published by the Ministry of the Interior confirm the pollsters’ predictions: the RN and its allies come out on top with 33.14% of the vote, ahead of the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) alliance (28%), and Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble (20%).

The political situation resulting from these results is highly complex. The clearest and most obvious lesson of the poll is the stinging disavowal of President Macron, who falls to third place and regresses considerably compared to the 2022 elections. It is likely that the presidential party will struggle to reach one hundred MPs.

In the face of Macron’s tumble, the RN’s rise is spectacular. Between 2022 and 2024, the RN will have gone from 4 to 12 million voters. But the momentum of the Left should not be underestimated, with almost 10 million voters.

Since the results were announced on the evening of June 30th, the battle for withdrawals and agreements has begun, with a deadline of 6 p.m. on Tuesday, July 2nd, which marks the end of the period for submitting candidacies for the second round. We are seeing a considerable number of “triangulars”—i.e., constituencies in which three candidates can stand in the second round, raising the question of alliances between the parties to ensure that one side or the other wins.

From this perspective, the greatest confusion reigns. Not so long ago, the RN conveniently provided the one and only foil in French politics, being the focus of all the blame. But those days are gone. The cordon sanitaire has crumbled. The far left, embodied by Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise party, which pulls the strings of the NFP alliance, now also attracts disapproval because of its outrageous and dangerous positions—an alliance that brings together “raving anti-capitalists, notorious antisemites, people [who have] compromised with Islamists and which has a crazy economic programme,” as Marion Maréchal reminds us. The well-oiled machinery of the “republican front” against the RN has broken down, and may not work as well as before.

But it would be naïve to underestimate the capacity of the current political system, dominated by the Left, to defend itself in order to survive. There is indeed a de facto collusion between the leftist coalition and Macronism, as evidenced by certain local agreements that are being put in place. For example, an NFP representative has announced that he is standing down in order to get Macron’s former prime minister Elisabeth Borne elected. Similarly, a Macronist said he was stepping down to allow the victory of Louis Boyard—one of the most extremist and dangerous MPs from La France Insoumise.

On the evening of June 30th, on the television platforms, the various political formations of the Left and centre spent their time handing out certificates of honourability and republicanism to each other. Whether or not the RN will be able to secure an absolute majority in a week’s time depends largely on these withdrawal agreements. An absolute majority is within reach if there are no withdrawals, as the RN usually leads in triangular elections. On the other hand, its task will be made more complicated if the “shameful compromises” denounced by Éric Ciotti, president of the Les Républicains party allied with the RN, manage to materialise.

In the battle, the French Left and far Left are using one of their favourite resources: the streets. As soon as the results were announced, spontaneous rallies against the RN were organised all over France, with slogans against fascism and “no pasarán” exhumed from formaldehyde—ridiculously out of proportion, but which gave these professional demonstrators the feeling, for a moment, that they were giving an epic meaning to their lives full of mediocre militancy. In terms of resistance, in Paris, on the Place de la République, where an allegorical statue of the Republic inherited from the era of Jules Ferry and Léon Gambetta stands, Algerian and Palestinian flags were frantically waved.

However, there is still one unknown factor in the equation: the saturation of voters in the face of these shenanigans by left-wing parties and the like, who are doing everything they can to preserve their turf. Locally, some MPs, who are more aware of the local balance of power, are also considering an alternative path and do not appreciate the instructions imposed by Paris. Many French people are now dreaming of nothing more than turning the tables and may well turn a deaf ear to calls to save “the Republic in danger” with accents worthy of 1793 and 1936.

Full of its own good conscience, the Left no longer realises that it is piling up the mistakes and digging its own grave by becoming ever more contemptuous, odious, and ideological. Like Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who took the floor to mobilise his troops with a pro-Palestinian activist wearing a keffiyeh at his side. Or sports journalist Benjamin Bernard, who took to the microphone to express his dismay at living in a country with twelve million “sons of b***.”

As the French saying goes, “you can’t catch flies with vinegar” (on n’attrape pas les mouches avec du vinaigre). Exhausted and at the end of their rope, the French are waiting for a little honey. For the moment, neither the Left nor the Macronist centre seem prepared to give them any.